为提高变形抗力预测精度，以兴澄特钢中厚板轧机实际生产数据为基础，针对性提出2种利用机器学习对变形抗力进行预测的方法：一种是极限学习机(ELM)与传统数学模型结合的多钢种变形抗力模型及建模方法，另一种是基于TensorFlow深度学习框架的变形抗力模型及建模方法。方法一参考周纪华-管克智变形抗力模型，改进原变形抗力模型结构形式，计算出低合金钢、合金钢及高合金钢代表钢种的基准变形抗力；通过非线性回归计算出与钢种无关的变形参数影响系数，引进ELM神经网络算法，采用灰色关联分析及交叉验证优选神经网络参数，通过线性插值对预测结果进行平滑处理，减小ELM预测残差，最后与传统数学模型相结合得到变形抗力。方法二基于深度学习技术，结合机理，构建2种不同结构的深度神经网络，采用小批量(mini-batch)和均方根传播(RMSprop)优化算法寻优，结合批标准化(BN)和早停(early stopping)正则化策略提高模型泛化能力与稳定性，最后综合工艺特性，分别对粗轧机(RM)、精轧机(FM)建立变形抗力预测模型，提高模型精度。研究结果表明，利用深度学习预测变形抗力具有较高的预测精度，经离线分析，平均绝对百分误差(MAPE)由原模型的9.27%降至平均2.59%；在线应用后，轧制力预测精度相对误差10%以内比例由72.31%提高到平均90.24%，提高了现场生产的工艺水平。

Based on the actual production data of the plate mill of Xingcheng Special Steel, two machine learning methods for predicting deformation resistance are proposed to improve prediction accuracy. The first is a multi-steel deformation resistance model and modeling method that is combined with an extreme learning machine (ELM) and a traditional mathematical model, and the second is a deformation resistance model and modeling method that is based on the TensorFlow deep learning framework. Method one: The structural form of the original deformation resistance model was improved by referring to the Zhou Jihua-Guan Kezhi deformation resistance model, and the reference deformation resistances of representative steel grades of low alloy steel, alloy steel, and high alloy steel were calculated. The influence coefficient of deformation parameters independent of steel grade was calculated using nonlinear regression. The ELM neural network algorithm was presented, and neural network parameters were optimized using grey correlation analysis and cross-validation. To reduce the residual error of ELM prediction, the prediction results were smoothed using linear interpolation and then combined with the traditional mathematical model to obtain the deformation resistance. Method two: Based on deep learning technology, two types of deep neural networks with different structures were built and combined with the mechanism. To improve the generalizability and stability of the model, the mini-batch and RMSprop optimization algorithms were used in conjunction with batch normalization (BN) and early stopping regularization strategies. Finally, deformation resistance prediction models for roughing mill (RM) and finishing mill (FM) were developed respectively in conjunction with the process characteristics to improve model accuracy. The results showed that the deformation resistance prediction using deep learning has high prediction accuracy. Offline analysis indicated that the mean absolute percentage error decreased from 9.27% of the original model to an average of 2.59%. The online application demonstrated that the ratio of rolling force prediction accuracy within 10% relative error increased from 72.31% to an average of 90.24%, raising the technological level of onsite production.